Research
Working Papers
“Shedding Light on Economic Growth: Nowcasting in Venezuela”
with Eurydice Fotopoulou, Iyke Maduako, and Belen Sbrancia (IMF)
“Household Inflation Uncertainty and Wage Growth Expectations”
with Philip Schnattinger
“Sector-Specific Household Inflation Uncertainty and Monetary Policy”
with Philip Schnattinger
You can download the time series data here: Sectoral Inflation Uncertainty
“The Role of Housing Tenure: House-Price and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Euro Area”
with Gabriel Arce Alfaro (Central Bank of Ireland) and Tara McIndoe-Calder (ESRI)
Abstract
This paper examines how households’ housing circumstances shape the relationship between house-price and inflation expectations. Using household-level data from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey for 11 euro-area countries, we document a positive association between one-year-ahead expected house-price growth and expected inflation. The association is stronger among renters than homeowners, while mortgagors and outright owners exhibit similar sensitivities in the pooled sample. Among mortgagors, adjustable-rate borrowers display a stronger association than fixed-rate borrowers. Expected rent growth is also positively associated with inflation expectations, and its inclusion reduces, but does not eliminate, the house-price association. We further examine whether this relationship varies with perceived accommodation-search and selling durations. We interpret these patterns through a framework in which housing tenure, contractual exposure and perceived market conditions influence the relevance and interpretation of housing-price signals. The findings are consistent with anticipated housing costs and exposure to financing conditions shaping inflation beliefs, while ownership may partly hedge future accommodation costs. Housing-related expectations therefore provide information about households’ inflation beliefs beyond the direct treatment of dwelling acquisition costs in the HICP.
[Draft coming soon!]
Work in Progress
“Subjective Household Phillips Curve”
with Anushka Mitra (Federal Reserve Board) and Einar Paz (University of Texas at Austin)
[RCT implemented - BoP HH for October 2026]“Media, Sentiment, and Partisan Expectations: Evidence from Daily Consumer Data”
with Constantin Bürgi (University College Dublin) and Edward Knotek II (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)
“House Price Expectations and Credit Outcomes: Evidence from Portugal”
with Frederico Mira Godinho (Banco de Portugal and ECB), Maximilian-Guennewig-Moenert (UCL), João Pereira dos Santos (University of Lisbon), and Stefan Trautmann (Uni Heidelberg)
Dormant Projects
- “Salience in Inflation Expectations: Granular Evidence from the UK”